A smooth paved surface reflects radar away from the sensor and reads dark. Cratering, rubble, large vehicles or aircraft standing on the surface are bright at this wavelength and would raise returns within the outline. The figures are consistent with a runway surface carrying no obstruction at a scale of about 20 m or larger on 3 October, and the rise inside the outline is smaller than the rise across the scene as a whole. This says nothing about who held the airfield, and radar cannot be made to say it.
The event interval produced no more change than a quiet interval of the same length over the same ground. Radar amplitude at this resolution registers large, bright or geometric change; it is not interferometric coherence and is far less sensitive to structural damage. A null result here is weak evidence that nothing happened, and no evidence at all about control.
What happened
Reuters reports government forces have retaken Mekelle airport, while AFP reports TPLF fighters and leaders leaving the city. Both rely on unnamed sources.
Why we say this
Reuters cites three source accounts. That supports this report, but Reuters could not independently verify their assertions.
What could be wrong
Control of a city is not the same as control of every part of it, and several sources are anonymous. Cloud blocked the optical satellite check, so we used radar, which sees through it: the airfield was imaged six hours after the reported recapture. The runway is clear and nothing changed beyond normal variation — but radar cannot show who holds a place, so none of that raises our confidence in this particular claim.
What would change our mind
Dated, geolocated evidence of airport control, independently positioned witnesses, or a correction to the report would change this assessment.
Also in this record
- LIKELYSome TPLF fighters and leaders were leaving Mekelle on 3 October.