The Mediterranean coast at El Alamein, Egypt, where the four leaders met. File photo, not an image of the summit.Faris knight Geopolitics·Fact check We read the Alamein declaration. Ethiopia is not in it. Four leaders met in Egypt and published a text now widely described as an anti-Ethiopia front. The document never says the word. What it does say is narrower, and more useful. Read the full story
The mountains at Adwa, Tigray. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Jialiang Gao www.peace-on-earth.org The war·Analysis The two sides of the last war are now on the same side Amhara Fano fighters helped the federal army crush the TPLF in 2021. They are now in an armed alliance with it. Understand that inversion and the rest of this war stops looking random. 6 Oct
Gondar. Who administers the north, and on whose authority, is the question the last war ended without settling. File photo, not an image of any event described here.A.Savin / Wikimedia Commons The war·Analysis Who governs Tigray next? Taking Mekelle does not settle that. A new interim administration and elections are being promised. The harder questions are who chooses the officials, who accepts their authority, and whether political negotiation can replace another contest of force. 5 Oct
Addis Ababa. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Simfan34 / Wikimedia Commons The war·Analysis Mekelle has fallen. The question now is Eritrea Federal forces hold the Tigrayan capital and the TPLF says it has withdrawn — the first thing in this war both sides agree on. Three days earlier an American think tank named the capture of Mekelle as one of the thresholds that could pull Eritrea into the fighting. That threshold has now been crossed. 4 Oct
The Torhailoch area photographed by Sentinel-2 about ten hours after the explosions. At ten metres per pixel, damage to a single building would not appear here — which is why we do not treat this image as evidence that nothing happened.Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA The war·Report Drones have reached Addis Ababa Explosions near the army's headquarters, a diplomat in the city pointing to small commercial drones, and an Ethiopian security source saying air defences shot them down. The government will not comment publicly. This is the first time the war has touched the capital. 3 Oct
Lalibela, Amhara. The fighting spread from Tigray into Amhara and Afar. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Thomas Fuhrmann / Wikimedia Commons The war·Explainer Who is actually fighting Abiy Ahmed? Seven armed and political groups announced an alliance on 20 September. Three weeks later, only one of them has been publicly named. That gap matters, because this is the body being credited with drone attacks on the capital. 5 Oct
El Fasher, North Darfur, four weeks before it fell to the Rapid Support Forces and on the day it fell. At ten metres per pixel this cannot show what the United Nations has since documented inside the city; it can only show whether the city itself was flattened. It was not.Copernicus Sentinel data 2025, processed by ESA Geopolitics·Explainer Sudan's war, explained A year since El Fasher fell and the world briefly looked, Sudan's war has not ended, it has spread. We checked what satellite imagery of that city can and cannot tell you, and explain where the fighting is now. 13 Oct
Asmara. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Clay Gilliland from Chandler, U.S.A. / Wikimedia Commons Geopolitics·Analysis Eritrea has an opening in Washington. What does it actually mean? A documented sanctions removal and an Eritrean account of U.S. talks show diplomatic movement. They do not establish a military alliance or a promise of American protection in the current crisis. 5 Oct
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. The water dispute runs underneath this summit. File photo, not an image of the summit.Own work / Wikimedia Commons Geopolitics·Analysis Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia set out a common Red Sea position The Alamein declaration puts maritime governance, the Nile and sovereignty into one diplomatic package. That is a regional alignment, not proof of a joint military campaign against Ethiopia. 4 Oct
Asmara. Eritrea's capital sits at the centre of a quarrel about sea access that long predates this war. File photo, not an image of any event here.Clay Gilliland from Chandler, U.S.A. / Wikimedia Commons Geopolitics·Analysis Eritrea cuts ties with Ethiopia as the war turns regional Asmara has severed all diplomatic relations after Ethiopia expelled ten of its diplomats and shut its embassy. Egypt was pulled in within days. What began as fighting in Tigray is now entangled with the two oldest quarrels in the Horn: the Nile, and the sea. 3 Oct
Addis Ababa. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Adam Jones from Kelowna, BC, Canada / Wikimedia Commons Humanitarian·Report Mekelle's phones are coming back. Normal life is not. AFP reports returning connections and mobile payments, but closed shops and worried residents. For families waiting for news, the distinction between a reachable city and a safe one matters. 5 Oct
Bishoftu, Oromia. File photo, not evidence of present access or hospital conditions anywhere.mjr74 / Wikimedia Commons Humanitarian·Explainer Taking Mekelle does not tell us whether aid can reach people Two dated operational accounts explain what a battlefield map cannot: whether relief teams can move, and whether patients can reach care. Neither is a live service update for 4 October. 4 Oct
Bahir Dar, Amhara. File photo, not an image of any event described here.A. Davey from Where I Live Now: Pacific Northwest / Wikimedia Commons Humanitarian·Report The UN says children are being forced to fight in Tigray The UN human rights office accuses the TPLF of an ongoing campaign of forced mass recruitment, and says those who refuse have been killed, tortured and detained. It makes a second accusation in the same breath, against the government. Nobody outside can check either, because Tigray is cut off. 4 Oct
The road between Dessie and Kombolcha, Amhara. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Alemseged Aragie / Wikimedia Commons Humanitarian·Report Six million people, no phone, no internet Communications across Tigray were cut around 25 September. A bishop in Adigrat says his communities have no contact with anyone. This is the reason almost nothing coming out of the region can be checked — including the claims both sides are making about who is winning. 3 Oct