Assessments
Claim by claim
The pro-government Tigray Peace Forces are close to gaining full control of Tigray, and TPLF forces have been wiped out.
Claimed by The commander of the Tigray Peace Forces, on social media · source rating
E5
unlikely
20–45%
This is a commander announcing his own victory on social media, during a battle, with no independent confirmation. Al Jazeera, which reported it, says it could not verify it - and in the same article its own Ethiopia bureau chief says the TPLF still holds several towns. That does not fit being wiped out.
What complicates it
Nobody outside Tigray can currently check who holds what. Journalists are being kept out and communications are down. Satellites cannot show which army is in a town.
What would change our mind
Reporting filed from inside Tigray by independent journalists, imagery geolocated to named towns showing one side's forces present, or the TPLF ceasing to contest the claim.
Federal forces have occupied parts of Tigray, and TPLF forces will counter-attack in due course.
Claimed by Debretsion Gebremichael, TPLF chairperson · source rating
E4
likely
55–80%
The TPLF's own chairperson admits federal forces have taken parts of Tigray. People do not usually concede losses they have not suffered, and it matches what the other side and outside analysts say about which way the fighting is going. Whether a counter-attack follows is a statement of intent, not something we can assess.
What complicates it
This tells us the direction of the fighting, not how much ground has changed hands. We still cannot say which towns are held by whom.
What would change our mind
A retraction or a claim that the statement was misreported, or evidence that the video attributed to Debretsion is not him or not from this period.
The territorial claims coming out of Tigray cannot currently be verified independently.
Claimed by Al Jazeera and AFP · source rating
B2
likely
55–80%
Al Jazeera and AFP both say so, independently, about their own work, and AFP explains why: journalists are being kept out of the affected areas and communications are down. This is the single most important thing to understand about everything else on this page.
What complicates it
This is a statement about what can be known right now. It will stop being true if access is restored.
What would change our mind
Independent journalists reporting from inside Tigray, or restored communications allowing residents to be reached directly.