Seven armed and political groups announced an alliance on 20 September aimed at removing the Abiy administration and establishing a transitional government.
Claimed by Al Jazeera, with Reuters · source rating
B2
likely
55–80%
A major outlet reports this, drawing on a wire service, and the date and aim are specific. We hold it at likely because we have not seen the announcement itself, and because no source we have found names more than one of the seven groups.
What complicates it
Nobody has published the announcement itself, or a list of who is in the alliance. That is a large gap for a body being credited with attacks on the capital.
What would change our mind
The announcement text, or any source naming the member groups. Evidence that the alliance does not function as a single actor would complicate it.