The Fano and the TPLF are now fighting on the same side

Updated 5 October 2026

Ethiopian federal forces are fighting an alliance that includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Amhara Fano National Movement. Six years ago those two were enemies: Fano militias fought alongside the federal army and Eritrean troops against the TPLF in Tigray.

That inversion is what makes the current accusations legible. Eritrea, which fought with Addis Ababa against the TPLF, is now accused by Addis Ababa of backing the alliance that contains it.

We assess the composition of the alliance, which is reported directly. We do not assess why the realignment happened, which is a question of motive that nobody outside these organisations can answer from open sources.

Claim

15204555809599 ← ruled out established →

The armed alliance fighting Ethiopian federal forces includes both the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement.RFI, as its own reportinglikely

likely

Fano fighters backed the federal government against the TPLF during the 2020-22 Tigray war.RFI, as its own reportinglikely

likely

Assessments

Claim by claim

The armed alliance fighting Ethiopian federal forces includes both the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement.

Claimed by RFI, as its own reporting · source rating B2

likely 55–80%

Reported directly by RFI, and consistent with how the Ethiopian government describes the forces it is fighting.

Supporting evidence

Allafrica

What complicates it

Fighting on the same side is not the same as a joint command. We have no visibility into how far operations are actually co-ordinated, and alliances in this conflict have changed quickly before.

What would change our mind

A public split, or reporting that the groups operate under separate and unconnected campaigns.

Fano fighters backed the federal government against the TPLF during the 2020-22 Tigray war.

Claimed by RFI, as its own reporting · source rating B1

likely 55–80%

This is uncontested. Fano fought with the federal army against the TPLF in the last war.

Supporting evidence

Allafrica

What complicates it

Fano is not one organisation but a name covering many local formations, which did not all act together then and do not now.

What would change our mind

Documentation that the alignment in 2020-22 was materially different.

Sources

Everything this rests on

report — Radio France Internationale report of 2 October, carried via allAfrica, stating that federal forces are fighting an alliance including the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement, whose fighters backed the federal government against the not archived

Deep dive

Sources & technical provenance

Allafrica

Radio France Internationale report of 2 October, carried via allAfrica, stating that federal forces are fighting an alliance including the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement, whose fighters backed the federal government against the TPLF during the last Tigray war.

Original source

Technical provenance

Timestamp basis: unknown
SHA-256: d713870833cbc3919ef9488c6b6a8d57307da6ef8c2bec915b86d21b9d7a42e7
Upstream sources: ["RFI"]