What we see
Comparing the 27 September and 2 October crops of the same extent, both effectively cloud-free, the runway, apron, terminal area and surrounding structures are indistinguishable between the two dates. No burn scar, no soot, no removed or collapsed structure, no disturbed ground, and no visible change in what is parked on the apron.
What it is consistent with
Consistent with no large-area physical change at the airport between the dates. This is a clean comparison — both scenes are nearly cloud-free and cover the same ground — so the null is a real observation rather than a gap in the data. It does not exclude a strike that missed, failed to detonate, or hit a hardened structure.
What we see
No FIRMS thermal detection within 10 km of Belay Zeleke airport at any point in the 25 September to 2 October window, nearest ever 54.7 km. Seven separate overpasses covered this latitude on 29 September, four of them at night.
What it is consistent with
Night coverage matters here: a fire burning after dark is when a thermal sensor is most sensitive, and four night passes found nothing. Combined with the clean optical comparison this is moderately informative — more than at Bishoftu, where no fire was claimed, and less than at Kombolcha, where the claimed target was a fuel depot and a fire was the expected consequence. ACLED's claim here is a strike on a base, which need not produce a detectable fire at all.