Verified

What we actually think is true

The same records as the news feed, sorted by our conclusion instead of by date. Most of this war sits in the middle, and that is the honest answer rather than a gap in our work.

Established

Independently corroborated. We would be surprised to be wrong.

ESTABLISHEDGovernment forces control Mekelle4 October

Likely

The weight of evidence points this way, but it is not settled.

LIKELYCivilians were killed in the fighting around AlamataDate not established
LIKELYEthiopian forces entered Adigrat after Eritrean withdrawal10 October
LIKELYThe UN Secretary-General says he is "deeply worried" by Eritrean forces in Ethiopia10 October
LIKELYEthiopia invoked its right to self-defence at the UN Security Council9 October
LIKELYEritrean forces have pulled back from Adigrat8 October
LIKELYEthiopia has demanded that all foreign forces leave immediately8 October
LIKELYEritrean troops are inside Tigray at Adigrat7 October
LIKELYA new interim administration is being prepared for Tigray5 October
LIKELYFederal forces took Agula and Wukro on the road north4 October
LIKELYThe AU says its appeal did not blame Ethiopia's neighbours4 October
LIKELYCommunications are returning to Mekelle4 October
LIKELYDrone strikes hit hotels in Adwa, including the Soloda3 October
LIKELYA drone struck a camp sheltering displaced families at Sheraro3 October
LIKELYGovernment forces hold Mekelle airport3 October
LIKELYEthiopia and Eritrea have cut diplomatic ties2 October
LIKELYFormer enemies are now fighting side by side2 October
LIKELYAmnesty is demanding emergency African Union action on Ethiopia2 October
LIKELYBlasts were heard at a military camp in Meshalokiya, Addis Ababa1 October
LIKELYDrones caused the explosions in Addis Ababa1 October
LIKELYEthiopia and Egypt have expelled each other’s diplomats1 October
LIKELYFederal forces are advancing on Mekelle1 October
LIKELYUN reports at least ten aid vehicles seized across 2025–202630 September
LIKELYTens of thousands have fled the fighting in Afar29 September
LIKELYMSF is treating hundreds of war-wounded at hospitals in Tigray28 September
LIKELYA drone strike hit Semera airport on 27 September27 September
LIKELYThe TPLF is forcibly recruiting civilians, including children25 September
LIKELYTigray has been cut off from the outside world25 September
LIKELYEthiopian airstrikes hit five schools in Tigray22 September
LIKELYSeven groups have allied to remove Abiy Ahmed’s government20 September

Unclear

Genuinely open. Reported, and we cannot tell either way.

UNCLEARA senior Ethiopian figure says Eritrean troops fought inside Ethiopia4 October
UNCLEARFederal airstrikes hit Axum and Shire3 October
UNCLEARA drone is said to have hit the air force base at Bahir Dar29 September
UNCLEARA drone is said to have struck the Bishoftu air base26 September
UNCLEARThe Ethiopian army says it killed 272 Tigrayan fighters in North Wollo24 September

Unlikely

The evidence points against it, or the only source is an interested one.

UNLIKELYDrone strikes damaged buildings at Adigrat University3 October
UNLIKELYA pro-government commander says Tigray's forces have been ‘wiped out’2 October
UNLIKELYA drone is said to have set a fuel depot alight at Kombolcha28 September

Ruled out

We checked, and it did not happen.

RULED OUTThe Alamein declaration names Ethiopia as its target4 October