Dahsas
Evidence

Every claim, on one scale

We place each claim we track on the same published scale. An answer can run either way: established above 80 per cent, ruled out below 20. Most of this war sits in between.

78 claims · 3 established · 2 ruled out · 73 unresolved

Claim and where it is reported
15204555809599 ← ruled out established →
Explosions were heard in Addis Ababa in the early hours of 1 October.Torhailoch / ENDF headquarters area, Addis Ababavery likely
very likely
Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias control Mekelle.Mekelle, Tigrayvery likely
very likely
The TPLF withdrew its forces from Mekelle.Mekelle, Tigrayvery likely
very likely
Blasts were heard at a military camp in the Meshalokiya area of Addis Ababa around 1am EAT on 1 October.Meshalokiya, Addis Ababalikely
likely
The explosions were caused by a drone attack on Addis Ababa.Torhailoch / ENDF headquarters area, Addis Ababalikely
likely
Drone strikes hit hotels in Adwa, including the Soloda, on the nights of 3 and 4 October 2026.Adwa, central Tigraylikely
likely
Fighting in Afar has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes.Afar regionlikely
likely
Civilians were killed during late-September fighting in and around Alamata.Alamata and surrounding areaslikely
likely
The declaration states that governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of the littoral states.New Alamein Citylikely
likely
Amnesty International called for an emergency AU Peace and Security Council session on Ethiopia on 2 October.Northern Ethiopia; appeal to the African Unionlikely
likely
The AU Commission publicly clarified that its earlier appeal did not assign responsibility to neighbouring states.African Union Commission statement on the Horn of Africalikely
likely
Alleged damage at Bishoftu could not be independently corroborated in the low-resolution satellite imagery available to the Critical Threats Project.Harar Meda airfield (HAHM), Bishoftu, Oromialikely
likely
Ethiopian federal forces took Agula and Wukro on 4 October 2026 after Tigrayan forces withdrew from both without fighting for them.Wukro and Agula, on the A2 north of Mekellelikely
likely
Ethiopian government forces and allied militia entered Adigrat on the morning of 10 October 2026.Adigrat, eastern Tigraylikely
likely
Ethiopian drone strikes hit Eritrean vehicles withdrawing from positions near Adigrat on the nights of 7, 8 and 9 October.Adigrat, eastern Tigraylikely
likely
Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to leave within 48 hours.Addis Ababa and Asmaralikely
likely
Eritrea severed all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia in response.Addis Ababa and Asmaralikely
likely
The Eritrean forces reported in Adigrat retreated northward on or about 8 October 2026.Adigrat and the road north to Zalambessalikely
likely
Ethiopia warns that those who enter its territory and support efforts to destabilise it should expect serious consequences.Ethiopia and the Eritrean borderlikely
likely
Eritrean soldiers were present in and around Adigrat, eastern Tigray, in the first week of October 2026.Adigrat and the Zalambessa road, eastern Tigraylikely
likely
Ethiopian drones struck vehicles carrying Eritrean soldiers at Guada, on the road towards Idaga Hamus.Adigrat and the Zalambessa road, eastern Tigraylikely
likely
Ethiopia declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata and ordered departure within 48 hours on 1 October.Addis Ababa and Cairolikely
likely
Egypt ordered an Ethiopian embassy counsellor to leave within 48 hours in a reciprocal measure.Addis Ababa and Cairolikely
likely
Ethiopia's government communication minister publicly demanded that all foreign military forces withdraw from Ethiopian territory immediately.Addis Ababalikely
likely
The United States warned that the region cannot sustain another military conflict and urged maximum restraint.Addis Ababalikely
likely
The armed alliance fighting Ethiopian federal forces includes both the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement.Tigray, Amhara and Afarlikely
likely
Fano fighters backed the federal government against the TPLF during the 2020-22 Tigray war.Tigray, Amhara and Afarlikely
likely
The TPLF is conducting an ongoing campaign of forced mass recruitment of civilians, including children, across Tigray.Tigray regionlikely
likely
Government forces controlled Alula Aba Nega Airport by the time of the 3 October reporting.Alula Aba Nega Airport, Mekellelikely
likely
Some TPLF fighters and leaders were leaving Mekelle on 3 October.Alula Aba Nega Airport, Mekellelikely
likely
Communication services had resumed in Mekelle by 4 October, according to AFP.Mekelle; service coverage within the city unmeasuredlikely
likely
Civilians looted the TPLF administration office, the regional police headquarters and some shops as TPLF-allied fighters withdrew from Mekelle.Mekelle, Tigraylikely
likely
Seven armed and political groups announced an alliance on 20 September aimed at removing the Abiy administration and establishing a transitional government.Ethiopialikely
likely
A drone strike targeted Semera airport on 27 September 2026.Semera Airport (SZE/HASM), Afarlikely
likely
A drone struck the Adi Abay area of the displacement camp at Sheraro in the early hours of 3 October 2026.Adi Abay displacement camp, Sheraro, north-western Tigraylikely
likely
At least eight people were killed in the strike on the camp.Adi Abay displacement camp, Sheraro, north-western Tigraylikely
likely
Communications across Tigray were cut around 25 September.Tigray regionlikely
likely
The Tigray TV headquarters in Mekelle was struck by a drone on 27 September, halting its broadcast.Tigray regionlikely
likely
Journalists are being prevented from travelling to the affected areas.Tigray regionlikely
likely
Communities around Adigrat are cut off from outside contact.Tigray regionlikely
likely
Federal forces have occupied parts of Tigray, and TPLF forces will counter-attack in due course.Tigray regionlikely
likely
The territorial claims coming out of Tigray cannot currently be verified independently.Tigray regionlikely
likely
Federal forces are advancing in southern Tigray and approaching Mekelle.Southern Tigray, approaching Mekellelikely
likely
The fighting is the biggest escalation in Ethiopia since the 2020-2022 civil war.Southern Tigray, approaching Mekellelikely
likely
MSF reports more than 420 war-wounded admissions at Korem and Alamata and more than 300 at Shire through 25 September.Korem, Alamata and Shirelikely
likely
MSF reported on 28 September that its Alamata hospital activities and outreach activities were suspended.Korem, Alamata and Shirelikely
likely
Preparations are under way to establish a new interim administration in Tigray, with the aim of holding regional elections within months.Tigray regionlikely
likely
Airstrikes by the Ethiopian National Defense Force, including reported drone strikes, hit five schools in Tigray on 22 September, causing deaths and injuries.Tigray regionlikely
likely
The UN reported at least ten humanitarian vehicles seized during 2025–2026, with two recovered as of 30 September.Affected areas of Ethiopia; individual seizure sites unspecifiedlikely
likely
Ethiopia's foreign minister wrote to the UN Security Council invoking Article 51 of the UN Charter and describing an alleged Eritrean incursion as an act of aggression.Addis Ababa and Asmara, via New Yorklikely
likely
Eritrea's foreign minister wrote to the UN Security Council calling Ethiopia's accusation a declaration of war and asking for Chapter VII measures against Ethiopia.Addis Ababa and Asmara, via New Yorklikely
likely
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he is deeply worried by reports of Eritrean forces present in Ethiopia and called on all parties to cease hostilities.New Yorklikely
likely
The Alliance for Survival claimed responsibility for the attack.Torhailoch / ENDF headquarters area, Addis Ababaroughly even chance
roughly even chance
Ethiopian forces carried out four drone strikes inside Adigrat University on 3 October 2026, targeting wounded fighters moved there from Mekelle.Adigrat University campus, eastern Tigrayroughly even chance
roughly even chance
At least nine people were killed in the Adwa strikes.Adwa, central Tigrayroughly even chance
roughly even chance
Eritrean soldiers have crossed into Afar to fight alongside the opposition alliance.Afar regionroughly even chance
roughly even chance
At least 150,000 people have been displaced in the Afar region.Afar regionroughly even chance
roughly even chance
Ethiopian federal forces conducted airstrikes on Axum and Shire at some point from 3 October 2026 onwards.Axum and Shire, western and central Tigrayroughly even chance
roughly even chance
At least 52 civilians were killed in the reported period around Alamata.Alamata and surrounding areasroughly even chance
roughly even chance
A suicide drone strike targeted the ENDF air force base in the Mekod area of Bahir Dar on 29 September.Belay Zeleke airport, Bahir Dar, Amhararoughly even chance
roughly even chance
A possible drone-related blast was heard at the ENDF Air Force headquarters in Bishoftu on 26 September.Harar Meda airfield (HAHM), Bishoftu, Oromiaroughly even chance
roughly even chance
The federal advance north along the A2 halted at Wukro, and federal forces either withdrew from the town or did not fully enter it until 7 October.Wukro and Agula, on the A2 north of Mekelleroughly even chance
roughly even chance
An Ethiopian counter-offensive in North Wollo killed 272 Tigrayan fighters, wounded 260 and captured several others.North Wollo zone, Amhararoughly even chance
roughly even chance
Eritrean forces entered Ethiopian territory, took part in fighting on various fronts, and supplied weapons to the TPLF-led alliance.Ethiopia and the Eritrean borderroughly even chance
roughly even chance
Eritrea sent those forces to support the TPLF-led alliance against the Ethiopian federal government.Adigrat and the Zalambessa road, eastern Tigrayroughly even chance
roughly even chance
Killings, torture, arbitrary detention, forced displacement and other reprisals have been used against people who resist recruitment and against their families.Tigray regionroughly even chance
roughly even chance
Government forces are also carrying out arbitrary conscription.Tigray regionroughly even chance
roughly even chance
A suicide drone strike targeted a fuel depot at Kombolcha Airport on 28 September.Kombolcha Airport (DSE/HADC) and adjacent industrial park, Amhararoughly even chance
roughly even chance
Ethiopian federal forces carried out the strike.Adi Abay displacement camp, Sheraro, north-western Tigrayroughly even chance
roughly even chance
A mortar strike killed civilians in Kobo town, Amhara, on 23 September.Tigray regionroughly even chance
roughly even chance
Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 kilometres into Tigray.Addis Ababa and Asmara, via New Yorkroughly even chance
roughly even chance
The strikes caused structural damage to university buildings visible from orbit.Adigrat University campus, eastern Tigrayunlikely
unlikely
Eritrea deployed one mechanised division and three infantry divisions, about 1,500 soldiers each, into Ethiopia on 7 October.Adigrat and the road north to Zalambessaunlikely
unlikely
A large fuel fire resulted at Kombolcha Airport on or about 28 September.Kombolcha Airport (DSE/HADC) and adjacent industrial park, Amharaunlikely
unlikely
Satellite imagery shows damage at Semera airport after the reported strike.Semera Airport (SZE/HASM), Afarunlikely
unlikely
The pro-government Tigray Peace Forces are close to gaining full control of Tigray, and TPLF forces have been wiped out.Tigray regionunlikely
unlikely
The declaration establishes a military alliance, mutual defence commitment, or joint operational arrangement among the four states.New Alamein Cityvery unlikely
very unlikely
The El Alamein joint declaration names Ethiopia as its target.New Alamein Cityalmost no chance
almost no chance

How to read it

Why so little is established

Reaching the established line takes independent sources, not repeated ones. Five outlets carrying the same wire story is one source.

How we verify →