Dahsas

በGoogle Translation የተተረጎመ · እንግሊዝኛ

29 መስከረም 2026 · በላይ ዘለቀ አየር ማረፊያ፣ ባህር ዳር፣ አማራ

እውነት ነው?ግልጽ ያልሆነ~50%

በባህር ዳር፣ መኮድ አካባቢ በሚገኘው የENDF አየር ሀይል ሰፈር ላይ የተዘገበ የድሮን ጥቃት

ተሻሽሏል

ACLED በ 29 September በባህር ዳር መኮድ አካባቢ በሚገኘው የአየር ሀይል ሰፈር ላይ የድሮን ጥቃት መፈጸሙን ዘግቧል፣ ይህም እንደገና ለ Alliance for Survival ተሰጥቷል።

ከ 27 September እና 2 October የተገኙ ከደመና ነጻ የሆኑ የሳተላይት ምስሎች በአየር ማረፊያው ላይ ምንም የሚታይ ለውጥ አያሳዩም፣ እና አራት የሌሊት የሳተላይት ምልልሶች ቢኖሩም በ 54km ውስጥ ምንም ሙቀት አልተገኘም። በሰፈር ላይ የሚደረግ ጥቃት እሳት ማስነሳት የለበትም፣ ስለዚህ ይህ ዘገባውን አይሰርዘውም — ምን ሊፈጠር እንደሚችል ያጠባል።

Claim
15204555809599 ← ተሰርዟል ተረጋግጧል →
በ 29 September በባህር ዳር መኮድ አካባቢ በሚገኘው የENDF አየር ሀይል ሰፈር ላይ የአጥፍቶ ጠፊ ድሮን ጥቃት ኢላማ አድርጓል።ACLED (ዶ/ር ጃላሌ ጌታቸው ብሩ፣ የምስራቅ አፍሪካ ከፍተኛ ተንታኝ)እኩል አድል ያለው
እኩል አድል ያለው

ሳተላይት

በፊት እና በኋላ

Satellite image before the reported event
27 September, 08:06Z · before
Satellite image after the reported event
2 October, 08:06Z · after

6.1 km across · Sentinel-2 (S2B) MSI L2A · 10.0 m per pixel · identical extent and scale

ይህ ሊያሳየው የሚችለው እና የማይችለው። Sentinel-2 true colour at 10 m per pixel, acquired 83.1 h after the reported event time. One pixel is roughly the footprint of a small building, so damage to an individual structure, a crater, or munition debris would not be resolved. This imagery could show a burn scar, a large destroyed or removed structure, a plume caught at the moment of overpass, or substantial change to fuel or vehicle areas. Absence of visible change therefore carries little information about whether a small strike occurred. ACLED reports a suicide drone strike on an air force base. Destroyed aircraft on an apron, a burning fuel or ammunition store, or a large burn scar are all within reach of 10 m imagery; a single impact on a hardened structure is not.

ምልከታዎች

ማስረጃው የሚያሳየው

የምናየው

ተመሳሳይ ስፋት ያላቸውን የ 27 September እና 2 October ምስሎችን በማነጻጸር፣ ሁለቱም በተግባር ከደመና ነጻ የሆኑ፣ የማኮብኮቢያው፣ የኤፕሮኑ፣ የተርሚናል አካባቢው እና በዙሪያው ያሉ መዋቅሮች በሁለቱ ቀናት መካከል ምንም ልዩነት አይታይባቸውም። ምንም የቃጠሎ ጠባሳ፣ ምንም ጥቀርሻ፣ ምንም የተወገደ ወይም የፈረሰ መዋቅር፣ ምንም የተረበሸ መሬት፣ እና በኤፕሮኑ ላይ በቆሙት ነገሮች ላይ ምንም የሚታይ ለውጥ የለም።

ከምን ጋር እንደሚጣጣም

በቀኖቹ መካከል በአውሮፕላን ማረፊያው ምንም ትልቅ-አካባቢ አካላዊ ለውጥ ካለመኖሩ ጋር ይጣጣማል። ይህ ንጹህ ንጽጽር ነው — ሁለቱም ትዕይንቶች ከሞላ ጎደል ከደመና ነጻ ናቸው እና ተመሳሳይ መሬት ይሸፍናሉ — ስለዚህ ባዶው በመረጃው ውስጥ ካለ ክፍተት ይልቅ እውነተኛ ምልከታ ነው። ይህ የሳተ፣ ያልፈነዳ፣ ወይም የተጠናከረ መዋቅርን የመታ ጥቃትን አያገልልም።

የምናየው

በ 25 September እስከ 2 October የጊዜ ማዕቀፍ ውስጥ በማንኛውም ጊዜ ከበላይ ዘለቀ አውሮፕላን ማረፊያ በ 10 km ውስጥ ምንም የ FIRMS የሙቀት ግኝት የለም፣ በጣም የቀረበው 54.7 km ነው። በ 29 September ሰባት የተለያዩ ማለፊያዎች ይህንን ኬክሮስ ሸፍነዋል፣ ከእነዚህ ውስጥ አራቱ በሌሊት ነበሩ።

ከምን ጋር እንደሚጣጣም

የሌሊት ሽፋን እዚህ አስፈላጊ ነው፡ ከጨለማ በኋላ የሚነድ እሳት የሙቀት ሴንሰር በጣም ስሜታዊ የሚሆንበት ጊዜ ነው፣ እና አራት የሌሊት ማለፊያዎች ምንም አላገኙም። ከንጹህ የኦፕቲካል ንጽጽር ጋር ሲጣመር ይህ በመጠኑ መረጃ ሰጪ ነው — ምንም እሳት ካልተባለበት ከቢሾፍቱ የበለጠ፣ እና የተባለው ኢላማ የነዳጅ ማከማቻ ከነበረበት እና እሳት የሚጠበቅ ውጤት ከነበረበት ከኮምቦልቻ ያነሰ ነው። የ ACLED የይገባኛል ጥያቄ እዚህ በሰፈር ላይ የተደረገ ጥቃት ነው፣ ይህም ምንም ሊገኝ የሚችል እሳት ላያመነጭ ይችላል።

ግምገማዎች

የይገባኛል ጥያቄ በይገባኛል ጥያቄ

በ 29 September በባህር ዳር መኮድ አካባቢ በሚገኘው የENDF አየር ሀይል ሰፈር ላይ የአጥፍቶ ጠፊ ድሮን ጥቃት ኢላማ አድርጓል።

Claimed by ACLED (ዶ/ር ጃላሌ ጌታቸው ብሩ፣ የምስራቅ አፍሪካ ከፍተኛ ተንታኝ) · source rating B3

እኩል አድል ያለው 45–55%

አንድ ምንጭ ይህንን ዘግቧል። ከበፊቱ እና ከበኋላው የተገኙ የሳተላይት ምስሎች በአየር ማረፊያው ላይ ምንም ለውጥ አያሳዩም እንዲሁም አራት የሌሊት ምልልሶችን ጨምሮ በአቅራቢያው ምንም እሳት አልተገኘም። በሰፈር ላይ የሚደረግ ጥቃት እሳት ማስነሳት ስለማያስፈልገው፣ ይህ ዘገባውን ሳይሰርዝ ምን ሊፈጠር እንደሚችል ያጠባል።

ጉዳዩን የሚያወሳስበው

No independent check run.

ሐሳባችንን ምን ሊለውጠው ይችላል

ሁለት በእውነት ገለልተኛ የሆኑ ቀዳሚ ምንጮችን መለየት ይህንን በከፍተኛ ሁኔታ ከፍ ያደርገዋል። አንድ መነሻ እንደሚጋሩ ማግኘት ደግሞ ዝቅ ያደርገዋል።

ምንጮች

ይህ የተመሰረተበት ሁሉም ነገር

  • ምርምር — ACLED expert comment, 'Blasts in Addis Ababa signal dangerous new phase in Ethiopia's conflict', attributed to Dr Jalale Getachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst. States that suicide drone strikes believed to have been carried out by the በማህደር የተቀመጠ ቅጂ
  • የሙቀት — NASA FIRMS detections within 150 km of Belay Zeleke airport, 25 Sep - 2 Oct 2026: only four in the entire window, and NONE within 10 km of the airport at any time. The nearest ever was 54.7 km, on 29 September itself. Overpass coverage on 2 ከተመዘገበ ጥያቄ እንደገና የተፈጠረ

ጥልቅ ዳሰሳ

ምንጮች እና ቴክኒካዊ መነሻ

ACLED

ACLED expert comment, 'Blasts in Addis Ababa signal dangerous new phase in Ethiopia's conflict', attributed to Dr Jalale Getachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst. States that suicide drone strikes believed to have been carried out by the Alliance for Survival targeted, on the day following the Kombolcha strike, 'ENDF's air force base in Mekod area in Bahir Dar city in Amhara region'.

Technical provenance
Timestamp basis
unknown
Archived at
2026-10-02 17:44:18.521993+00:00
Archive method
existing wayback snapshot
SHA-256
6693c830a8e4d5285fc89aef0b2d2fb02aaf6e1637280e15a501788a006b922b

Satellite image · 27 Sep 2026

Sentinel-2 true-colour crop acquired 2026-09-27T08:06Z, before the reported strike. Footprint covers 100% of the requested area.

Technical provenance
Captured at
2026-09-27 08:06:53.516000+00:00
Timestamp basis
exif
Archived at
2026-10-02 18:12:20.335662+00:00
Archive method
wayback save page now
SHA-256
3ae3bfb968892bbcf0e10ba8bee62f89d2eb99730acaba3b1ca3a599c7e20f89
Licence
Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA. Free and open under the Copernicus licence; redistribution permitted with attribution.
Artifact type
satellite_rgb
Sensor
Sentinel-2 (S2B) MSI L2A
Acquisition start
2026-09-27T08:06:53.516000Z
Source scene id
S2B_37PCN_20260927_0_L2A
Source url
https://earth-search.aws.element84.com/v1/collections/sentinel-2-l2a/items/S2B_37PCN_20260927_0_L2A
Source catalog
Element 84 Earth Search v1 / AWS Open Data sentinel-cogs
Artifact path
media/artifacts/3ae3bfb968892bbc.png
Sha256
3ae3bfb968892bbcf0e10ba8bee62f89d2eb99730acaba3b1ca3a599c7e20f89
Processing
["earth-search STAC query (sentinel-2-l2a)", "windowed read of asset 'visual' at native resolution (EPSG:32637)", "bands 1-3 as RGB", "PNG encode"]
Bbox
[37.293688, 11.577031, 37.348712, 11.630929]
Crs
EPSG:4326
Resolution m
10.0
Cloud cover pct
2.7872
License
Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA. Free and open under the Copernicus licence; redistribution permitted with attribution.
Redistributable
True
Detectability note
Sentinel-2 true colour at 10 m per pixel, acquired 36.9 h before the reported event time. One pixel is roughly the footprint of a small building, so damage to an individual structure, a crater, or munition debris would not be resolved. This imagery could show a burn scar, a large destroyed or removed structure, a plume caught at the moment of overpass, or substantial change to fuel or vehicle areas. Absence of visible change therefore carries little information about whether a small strike occurred. ACLED reports a suicide drone strike on an air force base. Destroyed aircraft on an apron, a burning fuel or ammunition store, or a large burn scar are all within reach of 10 m imagery; a single impact on a hardened structure is not.

Satellite image · 2 Oct 2026

Sentinel-2 true-colour crop acquired 2026-10-02T08:06Z, after the reported strike. Footprint covers 100% of the requested area.

Technical provenance
Captured at
2026-10-02 08:06:55.315000+00:00
Timestamp basis
exif
Archived at
2026-10-02 18:12:36.396374+00:00
Archive method
wayback save page now
SHA-256
ba8bdbe9c779fa149798b73a0107214388a6747b343a828e14e55a50115a8824
Licence
Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA. Free and open under the Copernicus licence; redistribution permitted with attribution.
Artifact type
satellite_rgb
Sensor
Sentinel-2 (S2C) MSI L2A
Acquisition start
2026-10-02T08:06:55.315000Z
Source scene id
S2C_37PCN_20261002_0_L2A
Source url
https://earth-search.aws.element84.com/v1/collections/sentinel-2-l2a/items/S2C_37PCN_20261002_0_L2A
Source catalog
Element 84 Earth Search v1 / AWS Open Data sentinel-cogs
Artifact path
media/artifacts/ba8bdbe9c779fa14.png
Sha256
ba8bdbe9c779fa149798b73a0107214388a6747b343a828e14e55a50115a8824
Processing
["earth-search STAC query (sentinel-2-l2a)", "windowed read of asset 'visual' at native resolution (EPSG:32637)", "bands 1-3 as RGB", "PNG encode"]
Bbox
[37.293688, 11.577031, 37.348712, 11.630929]
Crs
EPSG:4326
Resolution m
10.0
Cloud cover pct
0.108
License
Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA. Free and open under the Copernicus licence; redistribution permitted with attribution.
Redistributable
True
Detectability note
Sentinel-2 true colour at 10 m per pixel, acquired 83.1 h after the reported event time. One pixel is roughly the footprint of a small building, so damage to an individual structure, a crater, or munition debris would not be resolved. This imagery could show a burn scar, a large destroyed or removed structure, a plume caught at the moment of overpass, or substantial change to fuel or vehicle areas. Absence of visible change therefore carries little information about whether a small strike occurred. ACLED reports a suicide drone strike on an air force base. Destroyed aircraft on an apron, a burning fuel or ammunition store, or a large burn scar are all within reach of 10 m imagery; a single impact on a hardened structure is not.

Fire-detection data

NASA FIRMS detections within 150 km of Belay Zeleke airport, 25 Sep - 2 Oct 2026: only four in the entire window, and NONE within 10 km of the airport at any time. The nearest ever was 54.7 km, on 29 September itself. Overpass coverage on 29 September is strong, including night: VIIRS NOAA-20 at 00:03Z, 09:28Z, 11:06-11:08Z and 21:59-22:01Z, plus MODIS at 02:11Z, 06:22Z and 12:57Z, with that day's Ethiopian detections spanning latitudes 3.06-14.04.

Technical provenance
Timestamp basis
exif
SHA-256
bedf122d1aff38597564e2e6d751efc0ed46a6e9dc01d1e8b3928f19d300d557
Reproduction procedure
Stream the open 7-day global CSVs for noaa-20-viirs-c2, suomi-npp-viirs-c2 and modis-c6.1 from firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/data/active_fire/, filter to Ethiopia then to within 150 km of the site. No API key needed. The window is ROLLING and was captured on 2026-10-02 covering 25 Sep - 2 Oct; after that date these files no longer reach this event, which is why the subset is stored here. For later work use the FIRMS archive API, which needs a free key.
Upstream sources
["NASA FIRMS / VIIRS and MODIS active fire products"]