The war — Dahsas

The mountains at Adwa, Tigray. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Jialiang Gao www.peace-on-earth.org

The war·Analysis

The two sides of the last war are now on the same side

Amhara Fano fighters helped the federal army crush the TPLF in 2021. They are now in an armed alliance with it. Understand that inversion and the rest of this war stops looking random.

6 Oct

Gondar. Who administers the north, and on whose authority, is the question the last war ended without settling. File photo, not an image of any event described here.A.Savin / Wikimedia Commons

The war·Analysis

Who governs Tigray next? Taking Mekelle does not settle that.

A new interim administration and elections are being promised. The harder questions are who chooses the officials, who accepts their authority, and whether political negotiation can replace another contest of force.

5 Oct

Addis Ababa. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Simfan34 / Wikimedia Commons

The war·Analysis

Mekelle has fallen. The question now is Eritrea

Federal forces hold the Tigrayan capital and the TPLF says it has withdrawn — the first thing in this war both sides agree on. Three days earlier an American think tank named the capture of Mekelle as one of the thresholds that could pull Eritrea into the fighting. That threshold has now been crossed.

4 Oct

The Torhailoch area photographed by Sentinel-2 about ten hours after the explosions. At ten metres per pixel, damage to a single building would not appear here — which is why we do not treat this image as evidence that nothing happened.Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA

The war·Report

Drones have reached Addis Ababa

Explosions near the army's headquarters, a diplomat in the city pointing to small commercial drones, and an Ethiopian security source saying air defences shot them down. The government will not comment publicly. This is the first time the war has touched the capital.

3 Oct

Lalibela, Amhara. The fighting spread from Tigray into Amhara and Afar. File photo, not an image of any event described here.Thomas Fuhrmann / Wikimedia Commons

The war·Explainer

Who is actually fighting Abiy Ahmed?

Seven armed and political groups announced an alliance on 20 September. Three weeks later, only one of them has been publicly named. That gap matters, because this is the body being credited with drone attacks on the capital.

5 Oct